The agency that oversees prediction markets has investigated Polymarket trades on Biden pardons and the Iran war--and even more potential insider trading at Google, documents obtained by WIRED show. The US government launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market Polymarket, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations. In early May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved an order allowing the agency's enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. The order granted permission to take testimony, obtain subpoenas, administer oaths, and require the production of documents in the course of the investigation.

Look Up Back to School Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Mashable Selects Say More Trending Now Good Connection: Uplifting stories for a digital age Creator Playbook Switch Off Mashable Voices Safety Net Versus All Series Polymarket and Kalshi face possible regulation as Supreme Court'monitors the situation' Prediction markets regulated as gambling platforms by individual states? Shannon Connellan is Mashable's Senior Editor, General Assignments, based in London. She has been Mashable's UK Editor (and still manages the illustrious UK team) and Australia Editor, but emotionally, she lives searching for . A Tomatometer-approved critic, Shannon writes about entertainment, tech, social good, science, culture, and Australian horror, and loves to nerd out with movie stars, filmmakers, and TV creators . SCOTUS is the focus for state regulators aimed at Kalshi.

This week on, we dig into the latest prediction market buzz, Flock's AI-powered police search tool, and how tech bros don't know how to talk about "rouge" AI agents This week, senior writer Kate Knibbs joins Brian Barrett, Zoë Schiffer, and Leah Feiger to discuss the two incidents that have been making noise in prediction markets: George Santos getting lifetime ban from Kalshi and a Google engineer's Polymarket insider-trading case. Plus, reporters reverse-engineered Flock's AI-powered person-search tool and spoke to experts about the accuracy of such technology, and the hosts unpack the online meltdown over how to talk about "rogue" AI agents. George Santos Just Got Hit With Kalshi's First-Ever Lifetime Ban This Is Flock's AI Search Tool for Cops What We Still Don't Know About OpenAI's Hugging Face Hack Write to us at [email protected] . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . It's so nice to see you guys. Former US representative George Santos was the first person to be given a lifetime ban from Kalshi, and a Google engineer was accused of insider trading at Polymarket. We'll get into why both of these cases show that there are still plenty of blurry rules when it comes to prediction markets. This week, WIRED reporters were able to recreate Flock's AI powered search tool, the same one that has a track record of being misused by police officers. We're going to break down how it works, and whether the backlash against Flock cameras might have reached its boiling point. Do you guys remember George Santos?

Say More Look Up Switch Off Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Creator Playbook Mashable Voices Trending Now Mashable Selects Safety Net Versus Gift Ideas For Everyone On Your List In My Bag All Series Prediction markets like Kalshi violate sports betting laws, ruling says. Rebecca Ruiz is a Senior Reporter at Mashable. She frequently covers mental health, digital culture, and technology. Her areas of expertise include suicide prevention, screen use and mental health, parenting, youth well-being, and meditation and mindfulness. Rebecca's experience prior to Mashable includes working as a staff writer, reporter, and editor at NBC News Digital and as a staff writer at Forbes.

Michele Spagnuolo was arrested for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, but the Switzerland-based engineer says he was simply gambling--activity that is beyond the reach of US commodities law. Michele Spagnuolo, the Google engineer arrested in May by US authorities for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, is making a new bold bet. On Wednesday, his legal team filed a motion to dismiss the charges against him. Spagnuolo isn't outright denying that he made money using internal information from Google. Instead, his legal team says that the wagers were not financial instruments subject to regulation by the United States' Commodities Exchange Act but rather good old-fashioned international betting that the US has no authority over.

From threats to the safety of poll workers to voters who can't distinguish between odds and results, prediction markets are already scrambling the political process. When Jim Allen, the elections director for Delaware County, Pennsylvania, recently ran a training session for poll workers, he began a conversation about a topic he'd never previously had to address during training: prediction markets . "There was one person who stood up, and they said, 'Well, what if we just want to make a minor bet on what turnout will be, that'll keep things interesting?' And we said: 'No, this is all bad,'" Allen, who oversees 383 precincts, recounts. As a result, Allen and the board of elections in Delaware County amended the oaths signed by people involved in elections to include "an affirmation that the workers have no direct or indirect interests in any bets, wagers, or prediction markets."

Jacob Fortinsky, the CEO and cofounder of the new prediction market Novig, says his outfit isn't like those other markets. Twenty-eight-year-old Jacob Fortinsky has been busy. "I was a groomsman at two weddings this weekend," he tells me over Zoom. Also, the sports trading company he runs, Novig, launched its prediction market last week, facilitating $18 million in trading volume on its first day. Today, Novig launches a "responsible trading framework" in its exchange rulebook, codifying its guardrails as part of its effort to be seen as a kinder, gentler prediction market player.

From pessimism around dating to AI reshaping culture, cyber-ethnographer Ruby Thelot tells WIRED why people are putting too much stock into things that go viral. For the last decade on social media, Ruby Thelot has asked himself the same questions when he encounters viral content online: Is this an ad? Is this an actual trend or just a fluke? While trends like " 6-7 " and " looksmaxxing " have recently broken containment, not every new term or subcultural phenomenon has real mainstream staying power. Remember, in years past, when tech bros tried to make NFTs a thing? Or that period when audio chat apps like Clubhouse were pitched as the future of social media but quickly flamed out? ( A prediction WIRED was not immune to.)

One of Kalshi's most prominent traders tells WIRED he's swearing off Spotify-related markets until the issue is resolved. Top Kalshi trader Caleb Davies usually speaks to the press about how prediction markets help him rake in money. The Minneapolis-based IT worker estimates he's made $1.2 million overall across different prediction platforms, with $414,000 in winnings from Kalshi's culture markets alone. He especially enjoys wagering on music charts, because he carefully analyzes Spotify data to pick winners. "Every single morning, I'm going in, downloading the data, and updating my projections," he tells WIRED.

Pump.Fun's Bounties Platform Is a Black Hole of Circular Grifting The crypto platform claims you can "pay anyone to do anything," from quitting a job on camera to getting a memecoin-themed tattoo. But it mostly seems like people trying to scam each other. Would you run into a crowded university lecture hall, fart into a megaphone, and bellow "fartcoin" at the top of your lungs? If so--and should you have the means to document this stunt on video, preferably capturing the audience's reaction--you may claim a reward of approximately $1,000 . The money, of course, will be dispensed in fartcoin, a meme cryptocurrency trading at a little over 10 cents at time of publication, with a total market capitalization hovering around $130 million. Such is the promise of Pump.Fun GO, a new feature on Pump.Fun, one of the fastest-growing crypto businesses of the past few years.